Halloween 2026

This Halloween, we introduced you to Walter. Walter had a plan. He was going to sell his house as soon as the timing was right. First when rates came down. Then after the holidays. Then once things settled.

Walter was very patient. You can see how that worked out.

HereWalter is a skeleton, so we can laugh. But his plan is one we hear from real homeowners all the time, and 2026 has offered an unusually clear lesson in how it tends to play out.

Can you time the housing market?

Almost no one times the housing market consistently, because the things that matter most (mortgage rates, prices and inventory) move on their own schedules and rarely line up at once.

This year is a good example. Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed rate reached its 2026 low of 5.98% on February 26. By October 8 it had climbed to 7.40%, the highest level since November 2023, after seven straight weekly increases. As of October 29, it stood at 7.24%.

A homeowner who decided in February to hold out for rates to fall a little further watched them rise by nearly a point and a half instead.

Why are so many homeowners waiting?

Most are protecting a low mortgage rate they don’t want to give up.

Nearly half of all outstanding U.S. mortgages, 49.1%, carry a rate below 4%, according to an analysis of federal mortgage data for the second quarter of 2026. Trading a 3% loan for a 7% one is a real cost, and economists call the resulting reluctance to move the “lock-in effect.”

It shows up in how long people stay put. Redfin reports that the typical U.S. homeowner now keeps their house for 12 years, nearly double the 6.5 years in 2005.

What does waiting actually cost?

Waiting has costs that never appear on a rate sheet: rising prices, and years spent in a house that no longer fits.

Prices haven’t paused for rates. In Cumberland County, the median single-family sale price rose 4.46% year over year in February 2026, to $555,000, according to Maine Listings data reported by Maine Home Connection monthly statistics. When rates and prices both move against you, waiting can mean paying more on both ends.

Then there is the cost no spreadsheet captures. The stairs that get harder every winter. The rooms nobody uses. The grandchildren three states away. Those years don’t come back when the market finally cooperates.

Is it ever smart to wait?

Yes, when waiting is a decision rather than a default.

If your home still fits your life and you have no reason to move, a low-rate mortgage is a genuine asset, and keeping it can be the right call. The trouble isn’t staying. It’s staying because you’re waiting for a perfect moment that never announces itself.

How do you know when it’s the right time to sell?

The right time to sell is when your life says so and your numbers support it, not when the headlines do.

That starts with three things:

• What your home is worth today. Your equity often changes the math more than the rate does.
• What your next move really costs. The payment at today’s rates, and the options that can change it, such as putting more equity down or buying before you sell.
• Your own timeline. Where you want to be in three years, and what it costs to wait until then.

Once those are clear, the decision usually gets a lot lighter, whichever way it goes.

Don’t be Walter

Walter waited for the market to give him permission. It never did. If you’ve been wondering whether this might be your year, we’re always happy to talk it through. No pressure, just clarity.

Imagine more.